Lowlander members have authored two new research reports published through the Natural Hazards Center. Please find abstracts and links to the full reports below.
Lessons from Concurrent Disasters
COVID-19 and Eight Hurricanes
Alessandra Jerolleman, Shirley Laska, Julie Torres
Abstract: Changing climate dynamics have resulted in a confluence of disaster events to which Louisiana local government leaders and their emergency managers have never before had to respond simultaneously: a global pandemic and an “epidemic” of landfalling hurricanes during the 2020 season. Eight cones with challenging, unusual characteristics passed over Louisiana: (1) Two hurricanes passing over the same location within 36 hours, a fujiwhara—Hurricanes Marco and Laura; (2) 150 mile per hour winds inadequately forecasted and of an almost unprecedented speed last seen in the 1850s; (3) a difficult to forecast surge magnitude that led to incorrect immediate response; (4) delayed long-term recovery efforts from responders outside of the area because of initial reporting errors regarding surge heights and wind speed; and (5) a storm, Zeta, that passed directly over a densely populated area that would have been hard hit by rain and resultant flooding if the storm had slowed. In addition, the number and closeness in dates of storm occurrences led to lengthy coastal high-water levels that altered usual return-to-normal patterns. To these multiple, co-occurring threats federal forecasters, state and local officials, and Louisiana residents responded with expertise and commitment by adhering to close collaboration during weather assessments and COVID-19 surges, modifying evacuation protocols to be responsive to COVID-19, and undertaking multiple protective measures, all contributing to a low death rate from storms and a modest death rate from COVID-19 after the initial Mardi Gras surge when the disease was not known to be present. This research focuses on seeking a deeper understanding of management practices; how officials drew upon their earlier management experiences to manage the unusual; the ways in which practiced relationships between managers and weather forecasters benefited the unique situation; and if/how their response was impacted by the heightened alertness and response reciprocally to the danger of COVID-19 and the storms by both leadership and residents. More just outcomes were supported by the general capacity of the responders; commitment to keep the residents informed about both risks and appropriate responses to them; and the provision of special services, calculated for the new situation of the pandemic and the storm epidemic, for those without the means to respond adequately to both.
Justice-Driven Disaster Recovery
Baseline Data to Support Safe Communities, Healthy Ecosystems, and a Rejuvenated Future
Julie Maldonado, Kristina Peterson
Abstract: On August 27, 2020, Hurricane Laura hit southwestern Louisiana as a Category 4 hurricane—one of the most powerful storms to strike the Gulf Coast in decades. Subsequent storms also hit the region—Hurricane Delta on October 10 in the same area as Hurricane Laura and Hurricane Zeta on October 20, which cut across southeastern Louisiana. These storms were part of the most active Atlantic hurricane season on record, with 30 named storms, including 13 hurricanes. Louisiana sat in the hurricane cone of uncertainty for eight of those storms. Hurricanes Laura, Delta, and Zeta are the latest in a complex history of layered disasters and co-occurring injustices in the region. The communities most affected were already enduring high levels of pollution, COVID cases, poverty, substandard housing, failing infrastructure, extreme land loss, subsidence, climate change, and other weather impacts. Some communities on the brink of receivership were already at risk of bankruptcy (Hillburn, 20131), and then were hit by a severe winter storm after the hurricanes. While each of these alone can be dire, the compounded effects of co-occurring disasters amount to a sum greater than their individual parts. Decisions about hurricane disaster recovery—based on insufficient master plans and regional economic models—most often affect Latinx, Vietnamese, Indigenous, African American, Creole, and other communities of color. Our intent was to gather data that could support the informed decision-making of communities, families, and individuals about their future well-being. This ongoing process is aimed at fostering visions of a rejuvenated future based on human and environmental rights with the full participation local residents about their own well-being and that of their communities.